The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to tropical cyclones, but the one that is forming right now could be one of the most powerful and destructive ones in recent history. The storm, named Mocha (Mocha Cyclone 2023) by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is expected to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours, with winds reaching up to 200 km/h and gusts up to 240 km/h.
Mocha is currently located about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai, and is moving west-northwestward towards the Tamil Nadu coast. The IMD has issued a red alert for the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, and has advised fishermen not to venture into the sea. The storm is likely to make landfall near Cuddalore on Monday morning, bringing heavy rainfall, storm surge, and widespread damage to life and property.
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The cyclone is fueled by warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and favorable upper-level outflow. These conditions are expected to persist until landfall, allowing Mocha to maintain its strength or even intensify further. Mocha is also influenced by a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale atmospheric wave that enhances convection and rainfall over the Indian Ocean. The MJO is currently in its active phase over the Bay of Bengal, which adds more moisture and energy to the cyclone.
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Mocha is the first cyclone of the 2023 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, which runs from April to December. The season typically sees an average of four cyclones, two of which become severe or very severe. The last very severe cyclonic storm to hit Tamil Nadu was Gaja in 2018, which killed 45 people and caused an estimated $775 million in damage.
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Mocha could surpass Gaja in terms of intensity and impact, as it is projected to hit a more densely populated area with higher vulnerability. The IMD and other agencies are closely monitoring Mocha's track and intensity, and are issuing regular updates and warnings to the public. The state governments of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry have activated their disaster management plans and have deployed teams for rescue and relief operations.
The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has prepared for the situation by positioning 30 teams in the areas that are affected. They have also provided helicopters, boats, and other necessary equipment. Mocha Cyclone 2023 is a storm brewing in the Bay of Bengal that could pose a serious threat to millions of people in India. It is important to stay alert and follow the instructions of the authorities to minimize the risk of harm. Mocha could be a historic cyclone that will be remembered for years to come.